The Tea Leaves Podcast

In this episode of Tea Leaves, Rexon and Mira sit down with Kelly Magsamen, former Chief of Staff to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and newly appointed Senior Advisor at The Asia Group, to introduce the Indo-Pacific Defense Incubator (IPDI). Drawing on her decades of experience in the Pentagon, NSC, and State Department, Kelly unpacks the evolving landscape of defense innovation, industrial cooperation, and allied technology partnerships in the Indo-Pacific. The three discuss how the U.S. and its allies can scale next-generation defense capabilities, the role of private capital and disruptor firms, and the strategic challenges posed by China’s rapid advances. Kelly also offers insights on what defense industry leaders and companies should watch as the Trump administration recalibrates its Indo-Pacific security priorities.

In this episode of Tea Leaves, TAG Chairman Dr. Kurt Campbell joins the show to discuss his recent Foreign Affairs article, “Underestimating China,” and outlines why the United States must shift its strategic approach to remain competitive. In his conversation with Rexon Ryu, Dr. Mira Rapp-Hooper, and Tiffany Ma, Dr. Campbell discusses his argument that unless the United States moves toward “capacity-centric statecraft” and allied scale, the U.S. risks falling behind China in key domains relating to military capabilities, technology, and operational elements. He explores the flaws in assessments of Chinese power, need for a protected allied market, and the need for two-way industrial cooperation. 

In this episode of Tea Leaves, Rexon Ryu and Tiffany Ma are joined by Dr. Mira Rapp-Hooper, head of The Asia Group’s Geopolitics Practice, and Dr. Evan Medeiros to assess where things stand nearly two weeks after April 2’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. They unpack the escalation from sector-specific tariffs to looming reciprocal measures and examine the U.S.-China trade standoff. Dr. Medeiros leads a discussion on why this round of the trade war marks a more entrenched phase of an economic standoff, China’s confident posture and retaliation strategy, and what it all means for businesses navigating the fallout. The team also explores the structure of ongoing negotiations and how trade talks are increasingly intertwined with broader strategic issues.