"Moment of Zen" Podcast

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith debunk the myth that globalization destroyed America's middle class, showing wages actually grew during hyperglobalization. It examines the limited "China shock" impact and critiques how both political tribes' technology fears may handicap America's competitiveness against China.



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Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.



Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.



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Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.



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X / TWITTER:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

Main Argument

Myth: Globalization hollowed out America's middle class

Reality: Middle class moved UP income brackets; wages grew 40% during peak globalization

Real Causes

1973 oil shock caused wage stagnation (70s-80s), not globalization

China shock (2000s): Only 2M manufacturing jobs lost, limited scope

America vs. China

US: Less globalized than most countries; only 4% manufacturing trade deficit

China: Cities will look shabby in 30 years; exports falling as % of GDP

Political Technology Paralysis

Republicans: Fear hardware (solar, batteries, EVs)

Progressives: Fear software (AI, social media)

Both sides handicapping American tech leadership while China advances

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja examine "failed" industrial revolutions throughout history, particularly Rome's sophisticated water-powered manufacturing, standardized production, and steam engine prototypes. The discussion explores how civilizations like Rome and Song Dynasty China achieved industrial-scale commerce and technology before ultimately plateauing or collapsing due to demographic, military, or economic constraints.



Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers



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📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse

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SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.



Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.



The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.



Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

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X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

Roman Industrial Capabilities:

Extensive use of water power for mills, ironworks, marble cutting, and mining

Mass production of pottery (53 million amphora estimated from one Roman hill)

Standardized parts for statues, military equipment, and containers

Advanced metallurgy producing air pollution detectable in Greenland ice cores

Technological Sophistication:

Hero of Alexandria created functional steam engines as early experiments

Romans used coal for heating and had portable fire pumps

Nanotechnology in glassware (Lycurgus Cup with gold/silver particles)

Complex mechanical devices and automated systems

Economic Scale:

Billion+ amphora production across the empire

Sophisticated consumer economy with middle class purchasing power

Standardized commerce and shipping networks across Mediterranean

Industrial-scale mining that reshaped entire landscapes

Why They "Failed":

Population decline removed growth incentive

Military pressures from external forces

Reached saturation point where demand was met

Industrial revolutions follow S-curves that plateau without continued expansion

Broader Pattern:

Song Dynasty China faced similar trajectory before nomadic conquests

Large-scale commerce and state demand were prerequisites

Water transportation networks enabled industrial development

All required demographic/geographic growth to sustain technological advancement

Today on Moment of Zen is a conversation I had with Samo Burja back in January 2024 on Japan's existential demographic crisis, analyzing how collapsing fertility rates and population aging threaten the nation's economic and geopolitical future. The discussion explores cultural barriers to family formation, automation limitations, and Japan's dilemma between preserving identity versus accepting transformative change.



Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers



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📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 



🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse

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SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK |

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.



Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.



The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.



Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

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X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

Demographic Crisis

Fertility rate collapsed to 1.3 - population shrinking from 125M to 50M this century

Aging dependency ratio crushing economy - fewer workers supporting more elderly

Young people may emigrate if decline accelerates

Cultural Challenges

Work vs. family contradiction - salaryman culture prioritizes career over children

Proposed solution: Require executives to have 2+ kids

97% ethnic homogeneity creates social cohesion but limits immigration options

Economic Implications

Automation needs scale - fewer people makes it less effective

Japan's productivity gains vanish when controlling for aging

Risk of economic tailspin and brain drain

Military Transformation

From pacifist to military power - world-class navy, converting carriers for F-35Bs

Nuclear weapons ready - space program + plutonium = "some assembly required"

Key player in Taiwan scenarios

Geopolitical Positioning

Economically tied to China, security-wise allied with US

Will stay politically independent from China due to nationalism

Would go nuclear if US withdraws from East Asia

Japan must choose: Maintain cultural identity and accept economic decline, or transform through immigration to stay economically viable. Currently choosing the former while hoping automation saves them.

Today on Moment of Zen is a conversation I had with Samo Burja about the intricate historical, military, and cultural dimensions of the India-Pakistan conflict, and how these nuclear neighbors navigate their complex relationship.

This podcast originally aired on the Village Global podcast.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers



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📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 



🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse

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SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | | SQUAD

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.



Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.



The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.



Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.



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RECOMMENDED LINK/S:

India: Live Players Analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GbsYh2kx7Y 



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Follow on X:

@samoburja@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia



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KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Conflict stems from unresolved partition issues dividing predominantly Muslim and Hindu regions

India's large Muslim population (200-300 million) creates internal stability concerns during potential conflicts

Pakistan relies heavily on its military for national cohesion despite ethnic diversity

Both nations possess modern military capabilities including nuclear weapons (170-200 warheads each)

Nuclear conflict would likely only occur if Pakistan's government faced collapse or if India pursued regime change

A nuclear war could cause millions of deaths and create 30-50 million refugees

China maintains ties with Pakistan and has its own territorial disputes with India

Likely future: continued sporadic fighting followed by ceasefires rather than full-scale war

Pakistan's legitimacy relies on opposing India; India sees Pakistan as obstacle to global influence

Unlike Israel-Palestine, this conflict could theoretically be resolved without existential questions

India's optimal strategy: economically outgrow Pakistan while maintaining internal security

Today on Moment of Zen, we're sharing a conversation  about defense innovation bureaucracy reform recorded at this week's Hill & Valley Forum in Washington D.C.



 In this session, Palantir, CTO Sha Sankar and Senator Mike Lee dissect America's defense innovation paralysis. They articulate how bureaucratic accretion stifles the necessary competition and "heretical" personalities historically driving breakthroughs. Their prescription: regulatory reset via the REINS Act, competing procurement programs, and empowering maverick leaders—essential counters to China's accelerating AI capabilities.



If you're interested to hear all the talks from the forum, please subscribe to The Hill & Valley Forum Podcast: ⁠YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HillValleyForum⁩⁠ Apple:⁠ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hill-valley-forum-podcast/id1692653857⁠ Spotify: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/39s4MCyt1pOTQ8FjOAS4mi⁠

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📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠

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SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at ⁠https://netsuite.com/zen⁠.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠.

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠https://adquick.com/⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

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Follow on X: @SenMikeLee (Senator Mike Lee) @friedberg (Shyam Sankar) @cgarrett_15 (Christian Garrett) @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia

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KEY HIGHLIGHTS:

Defense innovation has stalled by prioritizing process over people and rigidly following bureaucratic procedures

Competition between services and programs historically drove breakthroughs but has been lost

America needs more "heretical" founder-type leaders within defense

The REINS Act could restore constitutional order by requiring Congress to approve regulations

Bureaucratic reform is essential to compete with China in the AI arms race