Very Bad Wizards

David and Tamler talk about two famous puzzles that for different reasons have bedeviled the rationalist community The Monty Hall Problem and Newcombs paradox. Why is it so hard for people to see that a 66% chance of winning a car is better than a 33% chance? Why do famous mathematicians struggle with this problem? And David and Tamler split on the Newcomb case can you guess which one of us is the one boxer?

Plus since were basically a TV recap podcast now, some thoughts on White Lotus Season 3.

The White Lotus [imdb.com]

Monty Hall Problem [wikipedia.org]

Numberphile on the Monty Hall Problem [youtube.com]

Newcomb's "Paradox" [wikipedia.org]

Nozick, R. (1969). Newcombs problem and two principles of choice. In Essays in honor of carl g. hempel: A tribute on the occasion of his sixty-fifth birthday (pp. 114-146). Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands.

David and Tamler welcome Barry Lam back to the show. In the first segment we violate one of our own rules by talking about his new book "Fewer Rules, Better People", a full frontal attack on David’s strict Kantian worldview. Then we dive DEEP into David Lynch’s first movie, "Eraserhead," and eventually arrive at a few coherent interpretations of Lynch’s “most spiritual film."

Barry Lam [ucr.edu]

Fewer Rules, Better People: The Case for Discretion by Barry Lam [amazon.com affiliate link]

Eraserhead [wikipedia.org]

David Lynch BAFTA interview (Origin of "Eraserhead is my most spiritual film" quote) [youtube.com]

VBW favorite Paul Bloom joins us to break down the Severance season finale and season 2 in general. We all agree that it’s a much-needed return to form and debate some of the choices and questions the episode raises. Plus, an evolutionary account of the ‘ick’  and the adaptive trait of graceful ping-pong ball chasing. 

Collisson, B., Saunders, E., & Yin, C. (2025). The ick: Disgust sensitivity, narcissism, and perfectionism in mate choice thresholds. Personality and Individual Differences, 238, 113086.

Very Bad Wizards Episode 236: Your Outie is Skilled at Lovemaking (with Paul Bloom)

Paul's Substack Newsletter "Small Potatoes"

What has four thumbs and can effortlessly glide from the a priori to the a posteriori in a single episode? These guys. In the first segment we tackle a brand new paper called “Being Exalted: an A Priori Argument for the Trinity.” That’s right, the Holy Trinity arrived at through reason alone. Then in the main segment we talk about Richard Feynman’s classic 1974 Caltech commencement address “Cargo Cult Science.” Does Feynman’s metaphor suggest that whole paradigms might be systematically misguided? Or is he just admonishing social scientists to maintain their integrity and use more rigorous methods? As you might imagine, a fight almost breaks out in this one. 

Moore, H. J. (2025). Being Exalted: An A Priori Argument for the Trinity. Sophia, 1-23. [link.springer.com]

Cargo Cult Science by Richard Feynman [caltech.edu]

Interrogating the “cargo cult science” metaphor by Andrew Gelman and Megan Higgs [columbia.edu]

Everyone knows Tamler hates numbers but he’s not the only one who worries about them. We talk about the philosopher C. Thi Nguyen’s excellent paper “Value Capture” which examines how the ever-increasing presence of metrics, data, indicators, rankings, and other forms quantification shape our values as individuals and institutions. Plus, VBW Does Conceptual Analysis – we’re on to the ‘S’ words now: smug. 

Nguyen, C. T. (2024). Value capture. J. Ethics & Soc. Phil., 27, 469.