WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Gold Pullback in Focus

• Gold surged to $3,500 before a sharp pullback to $3,321.
• Simon breaks down what caused the spike — including comments from Trump about Powell and rate cuts.
• Weekly chart shows potential kangaroo tail reversal — possible zone to watch: $2,800–$3,000.

Gold | Weekly | 23 April 2025

Trump, Powell & IMF Forecast Downgrades

• Trump critiques Powell and Fed policy while possibly setting up a scapegoat.
• IMF cuts global growth forecasts from 3.2% to 2.8%.
• South Africa's expected GDP is now at 1% — far below Treasury’s 1.9% target.

Rare Earths: Not So Rare, Still Strategic

• China's dominance in rare earths: 69% production, 90% processing.
• Simon looks at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) as a thematic play.
• Pros & cons of investing in rare earths — not fully sold on the ETF himself.

Flashback: 5 Years Since Negative Oil

• Remember April 2020? Oil went negative (-$40.32)!
• Breakdown of why it happened (physical settlement, lack of storage).
• One of the wildest moments in market history.

21 April 2020 | WTO goes negative

New Battery Tech from China’s CATL

• Sodium-ion batteries could rival lithium: cheaper, safer, fast-charging.
• CATL is profitable and pays a dividend, but listed in Shenzhen, making access tricky.

Aspen's R2 Billion Hit

• Brief mention of Aspen's contract dispute and loss.
• Lack of transparency continues to damage trust in management.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Global Markets Rundown

• Goldman Sachs suggests gold could plausibly hit $4,500/oz by year-end.
• Gold is currently around $3,200/oz, but volatility and uncertainty are driving prices higher.
• Gold miners are benefiting from the price surge, with big leverage showing up in earnings.
  • Example: Pan African Resources made $900/oz at $2,250; could make $2,900 at $3,250.
• Big upside still possible if gold just holds or drifts higher.
• SA gold stocks (YTD performance):
  • Pan African Resources +106%
  • Harmony +76%
  • AngloGold Ashanti* +72%
  • Gold Fields +30% (with mine-related issues)

Gold | Weekly chart |15 April 2025

📉 Recession Watch

• Larry Fink (BlackRock) & Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan): “US may already be in a recession.”
• Trump’s constant tariff changes add more uncertainty.
• Growth is slowing, and inflation is stubbornly high (risk of stagflation).
• Treasury buyers are hesitant—money is going into gold, not US 10-year bonds.
• China's potential bond moves could rattle the entire global system.

💸 Currency Check

• The Rand recovered from nearly R20/USD to around R18.75/USD.
• Driven by dollar weakness, global uncertainty, and DXY dipping below 100.
• Local support for ZAR remains tentative but improving.

📊 ETFs & Resources Rally

• Satrix RESI ETF* now ~50% gold miners, up ~44% YTD.
• Resource-driven tax windfalls (like in 2021/22) show how profitable miners benefit the broader economy.

📈 Local Market Highlights

• Purple Group* (EasyEquities) finally breaks out:
• Strong results: HEPS up 204%.
• Thrive initiative charging inactive accounts adds meaningful revenue.
• Stock rallied from 92c to 118c in just over a week.
• Possible end to aggressive selling pressure—more upside ahead?

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

 🇿🇦 South African Budget & Political Risk

• Budget framework passed (barely) – VAT increase to 15.5% effective 1 May.
• GNU under pressure as ANC signals reformulation talks with partners.
• Rand volatility: Touched nearly R19.90/USD before recovering to ~R18.70.

💥 Global Markets in Turmoil

• S&P 500 down 18.25%, Nasdaq down 22.5%.
• Massive selloff: One of the steepest 4-day drops since 1950.
• But historically, markets rebound over 1, 3, and 5 years post similar dips.

S&P500 | Weekly | 08 April 2025

🇺🇸 US Tariffs – Trump’s Economic Disruption

• 104% tariffs on Chinese goods kick in; highest in 100+ years.
• Aimed at reshaping global trade, raising revenue (~$600B–$1T est).
• Massive uncertainty over whether Trump reverses course.
• Impacts already visible: Nintendo delays Switch 2 US preorders.

🌐 Global Repercussions & Recession Risk

• Supply chain shocks, rising costs, and job losses in producing countries (Vietnam, China).
• Major US banks now see a >55% chance of global recession.
• Countries shifting alliances; US being carved out.

🏦 US Treasuries Drama

• Wild 10-year yield swings overnight – unusual volume raises eyebrows.
• Could China be retaliating by offloading US debt?

💡 What To Do As An Investor

• Avoid panic. Focus on quality and defensive stocks.
• Opportunities:
  • SA: Capitec, Shoprite*, BIDCorp, RSA Retail Savings Bonds
  • Global: Ferrari (Race), Johnson & Johnson, ASML, Europe
  • Sectors: Healthcare (STXHLT), Tobacco, Alcohol, Staples

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Chapters
00:00 Market Overview and Budget Implications
02:59 Global Economic Concerns and Market Reactions
05:54 Trade Wars and Tariff Impacts
09:10 Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times
12:04 Sector Analysis: Opportunities and Risks
14:58 Future Market Predictions and Closing Thoughts

Simon Brown chats with Glynn Allen from Shyft Global on the history of the app and the recent introduction of JSE shares and a look ahead to new features.

S&P 500 Bounce?

• After a rough start, Monday’s trading saw a small recovery. But with Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariff announcements looming, markets could be in for more volatility.

Budget Vote Approaches:

• The ANC lacks votes to pass the postponed budget, with opposition parties like MK and EFF holding out. Political and economic uncertainty remains high.

Commodities on a Quiet Rally:

• Gold (+19.5%), Copper (+26.5%), and Rhodium (+24.5%) lead the way, while oil and aluminium lag. The CRB Index is up 5.4% year-to-date.

Atlanta Fed GDP Now Update:

• Q1 GDP estimate revised to -0.5% from -2.8%. Adjustments for gold trade data make the outlook slightly less dire.

Amazon at a Discount?

• Stock down 20% from its highs, with a historically low P/E ratio of 34. Analysts see upside potential.

Amazon | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025

Johnson & Johnson’s Dividend Appeal:

• Trading near $165, with a potential drop to $150 making its 3% yield even more attractive.

Johnson & Johnson | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025

New ETNs on the JSE:

• Nvidia, Palantir, Novo Nordisk, and more available via FNB, offering exposure to top global stocks with local accessibility.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

00:00 Market Overview and Economic Indicators
03:09 US Tariff Implications and Market Reactions
05:45 Commodities Performance and Economic Impact
09:03 Stock Analysis: Amazon's Market Position
12:00 Stock Analysis: Johnson & Johnson's Stability
14:38 Investment Strategies and Innovations